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Video game sales trends

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May-2008-npd-next-gen trends

January through October follows a linear model (next-gen.biz)

Video games often follow a predictable model of sales. Several factors must be taken into place before making any such model.

In the United States, NPD December accounts for nearly 25%, while October, November, and December account for 50% of the calendar year's revenue. Additionally, history shows that from January to October within any given year the data for a system's installed base is roughly a linear function. This is always subject to change if there is a price cut or a system seller game like Halo.[2] In addition, November's hardware numbers are often 2.5 times greater than October due to holiday's gift-giving nature.[3]

The NPD top 10 can account for 25-45% of the market (in dollars or units).[4] The dropoff from #10 to #20 for a non-holiday month is around 60K to 100K. See for example, Feb 08 and April 08. The console specific top 10 (e.g. Top 10 PS3 games) tails out around 30-60,000 units. At least 33k is needed to reach the Top 100 on November 2008, a holiday month.[1] Despite not regularly reaching the NPD top 10, Nintendo DS sells the most DS than any other system.[5]

The grey market can be used to gauge supply issues. For certain cases, there is a strong correlation in monthly unit sales and grey market prices from auction sites like EBay.

North American console sales are usually at least twice as big as they are in Europe or Japan.[2] Compare Wii and PS2 sales in Japan and USA.

Good Canada console sales, such as in NPD April 2007, fall along the range of 30,000-40,000 units.[6]

ReferencesEdit


Video game industry
Sales trends · Holidays · Price cuts · Launch price · Market research · Fiscal reports · Video game costs · Video game delays · Leaks
Dev kit · Attach rate · Gaming conventions · Recession · Rumors · Sales bumps · Casual and hardcore games · Game piracy · Grey market · Controversies · Developer disputes · Video game research · Game development
NPD sales figures · Costs (Most expensive games) · Best-selling games

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